Thursday 12 March 2020

No, fantasy leagues have nothing to do with 'skill'

When a little known batsman from the rural heartland of India suddenly makes a swashbuckling 70 in the IPL - two sets of people are happy. One, the family. The people who I'm pretty sure have sacrificed a lot to get the young man onto the national stage. And two, the idiots who actually decided to make him the captain of their fantasy team. Conservative estimates say it's a 150 billion dollar market in India. Some of them like Dream 11 have become household names nowadays. They consistently bombard you with advertisements where some of the most popular Indian cricketers are seen endorsing them. These portals are very much legal in India, and people participate with actual money. Over the years, many people have asked the same question I'm asking right now - how on earth is this legal? Fantasy leagues argue that their portal is based on analysis and skill, which to be honest is hard to digest. Taking you back to my first example - very often, unknown players make a huge impact on a game. What analysis could a user have done on an 'unknown entity'. It's like you're buying a shirt for someone. But all you know is the person's name. He could be 6 feet tall, or a 3 -year-old infant! And if you end up buying the right shirt - it's not skill, it's dumb luck!

But there are people who study the game closely. People who know whether a player will succeed against a given opposition at a specific venue. But that won't make you the big winner of the night. For that, you need to have selected the best performing batsmen of the night, along with the best performing bowlers, a couple of all rounders and a wicket keeper. Is there someone talented enough to actually make such a pick? Highly unlikely. On most occasions, the IPL has thrown up random performances. For cricket enthusiasts, remember the 2012 IPL final? The heroics of Manvinder Bisla who wasn't even supposed to be in the team? What kind of analysis would have prompted a fantasy league player to select Bisla? None!

There are many such cases of whirlwind perfromances. Remember Paul Valthaty? Someone probably earned a lot of money that day by putting him on the team. Not sure how much data on Valthaty that guy actually crunched!

Dream 11 is the biggest player in India. It controls around 90% of the market share. Two high courts ruled in favour of Dream 11 after analysing its modus operandi. And that's understandable, because technically you can make money by making picks based on statistics. But the crucial question here is how much money? The big bucks still go to people who choose well on the night. Indian law says that if skill is a considerable parametre in the game, then its not betting. But fantasy leagues circumvent this law by giving the big prizes to highly random and surprising picks, while the number-crunching picks get a moderate return. So on paper, the money does stem from skill. But the bigger money stems from sheer luck.

Why aren't people more vocal about this? Well, it's sports. Even politicians work together to destroy sports. From umpires to commentators, Dream 11 have some very powerful people endorsing it. And the small amounts that people invest in the game don't matter enough for them to raise their voice. I personally don't have a problem with gambling. If I want to splurge my hard earned money on something that has absolutely no consequence in the real world, I must be allowed to do that. But hiding behind the garb of 'skill' is unacceptable. Dream 11 is fun. But let's call it what it is - gambling.





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