Saturday 20 June 2020

China: Modi's worst miscalculation

The pandemic is long forgotten. Ladakh is the new area of interest. The skirmish at Galwan valley has given way to a war of words. Beijing and New Delhi are now playing the great game of narrative-building. Xi Jinping isn't kidding around. He needs an image boost within his country, and he doesn't care where it's coming from. But India's story is different. Our economy is stalled, and the coronavirus outbreak is not going anywhere soon. India can't afford a confrontation right now. But nonetheless, we find ourselves slap bang in the middle of one. Let's be clear here - the stakes could not be higher in Ladakh. Two of the biggest economies in the world, armed with nuclear weapons and led by nationalistic leaders who like to project military strength. There is very little room for error.



But it would behoove us to ask our government as to how we got here. The cameras thought the date at Mahabalipuram went quite well. But that visit in fact sums up everything India did wrong on the China front. One, that visit was all about optics. About personal chemistry between two immensely popular leaders. But while Xi Jinping is likely to remain in power for life, theoretically there is no such guarantee about Modi. Building bilateral ties on personal chemistry discounts the fact that parties get voted out of power, and leaders get ousted in elections. While personal chemistry can make it easier to iron out differences in deal-making, they can never create everlasting principles of brotherhood and cooperation. That comes from shared principles - like democracy. Now, democracy's stock has nosedived as of late in India. But we are still a parliamentary democracy on paper. Come 2024, people CAN vote out Narendra Modi. That's not the case in China. Xi Jinping doesn't need votes. All he needs to do is flex his political muscles and project strength.

Even with a maniac like Trump in the White House, India doesn't have to fear the U.S. Beyond a tariff war, the U.S will never harm India's sovereignty or blatantly finance anti-India operations. China, will happily do both.

Modi thought that he could tame the dragon. Something that has never been done before. Why? Because dragons are fictional - much like China's friendship. Modi believed that India and China could benefit from cooperation. He's not wrong here, but he misjudged his opponent. China is not the kind of country that will be happy with being co-captain. Xi Jinping wants to lead Asia's ONLY superpower. And you can understand why. A strong and democratic India will always have a greater standing on the world stage than a strong, yet autocratic China.

Not only did Modi misjudge China - the country, he misjudged Xi Jinping - the leader. Modi chose to tango with China's most powerful president since Mao Zedong. It was never going to end well. A more viable alternative would have been to build strategic alliances in Asia. All mean money lenders have sworn enemies. China is no different. Instead, India has driven traditional allies away. When Nepal's Prime Minister accuses you of spreading covid-19 in his country - things are beyond salvation.

Modi says that such skirmishes are happening because India is now able to patrol previously inaccessible parts of the LAC. Ok, but what's next? Surely you didn't think China would sit by and let you build roads and bridges in the Himalayas! There seems to have been no contingency plan to deal with a Chinese push-back against India's border development. A massive failure of military and civilian leadership.

Finally, the government's response post the faceoff has been shameful. This level of clarity is unacceptable for a democracy. More than 5 days after the incident, we still don't have an official statement on how our men died. Bludgeoned by stones? Thrown into the river? The martyrdom of a soldier must not be subject to this amount of speculation. The government must come clean on the events of Monday night.

There are many who are asking the opposition parties to be mum during this crisis. That would be the biggest mistake. Space for dissent is what makes us different from China. We have the right to ask questions of our government. A right that people in China can only exercise ONCE in their lives. If emerging from this standoff requires us to abandon those ideals, then we must really ask the question - did China invade our land or our ideals?