Trump drops a New Year bomb in West Asia

You’re sipping a nice margarita during your vacation in Florida. What’s on your mind? Normal people would think about how nice it is to get away from work. Or about the summer that’s headed your away. But not Donald Trump. He was tweeting out a picture of the American flag after having ordered the killing of Qassem Soleimani – the most powerful general in Iran. Just 2 days into 2020, and Trump has given us his Samuel L Jackson moment already. Taking out the commander of Iran’s Quds force is no mean feat. And hand it to Trump for doing it while on vacation.

Iran's spymaster Qassem Soleimani killed

A little after midnight, a group of Shia militants from Iraq’s PMF were escorting ‘special guests’ from the Baghdad airport in their own SUVs. And that’s when 3 U.S rockets hit them near the cargo terminal. Information was coming in at a snail’s pace. The PMF immediately blamed the attack on the U.S. And there was radio silence from the Americans. But as soon as reports of militant casualties emerged, the picture was clear – this was indeed a cold and calculated U.S operation. But it wasn’t until much later that Qassem Soleimani’s name figured in the list of casualties. Surely the Americans wouldn’t take out one of the most powerful men in Iran! Assassinations are by definition, daring. But there would be no coming back from such an escalation. But that’s Donald Trump for you. There was no last-minute calling-off this time around. Not just Soleimani, the deputy commander of the PMF was also killed in the strike. Two top commanders from Iran and Iraq, killed in a single blow.

The U.S military was probably tracking Soleimani for a long time now. He had been making trips to Baghdad regularly, due to the anti-govt protests over the last few months. And taking out a convoy was never going to be a problem for them. But what next? Can the U.S withstand the fallout from such a high-profile killing?

What was left of Soleimani's convoy

Countries were quick to take sides. Needless to say, Syria sided with Iran. They called the U.S act cowardly. Russia too said the strikes would escalate tensions. China called for calm and restraint, the kind it’s showing in the South China sea and Xinjiang. And there was white noise from Britain, France and most American allies. And when they did react, it was with a message of de-escalation. This is not the early 1990s or the 2000s. The power equation has changed. Trump will find it difficult to create a coalition in west Asia this time around. But more than the silence from its allies, it is the active condemnation from Iraq that is likely to irk Trump. The Iraqi PM called it a gross violation of the security arrangement with the U.S. The U.S got away with incisive strikes on sovereign soil during bin Laden and Baghdadi. But those were known terrorists, hiding in unknown locations. Soleimani was no bin Laden. This was a man who headed a legitimate wing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Political differences led to the Quds being designated as a terror group. And Soleimani’s designation as a target. But don’t for a moment think that the man was a saint.

pic.twitter.com/VXeKiVzpTf

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2020

Soleimani was Iran’s spymaster. He pulled the strings from behind, while his Quds force unleashed havoc against American troops. U.S claims that he was behind the death of 17% of all American personnel between 2003 and 2011 in Iraq. So, America definitely had an ax to grind. You could even say a justifiable one. But this puts the entire region on a knife’s edge. Any government worth its salt would respond to such an act. And Iran’s leadership is working overtime to rally the country together. From the Ayatollah to the common man on the streets of Tehran, the message is clear – revenge. But that’s easier said that done. America has an impulsive, trigger-happy president who is fighting an impeachment trial in an election year. Is that the kind of animal Iran wants to spar with? Moreover, the gulf between the two militaries is too wide. A fighting spirit can win you a war, but only in cinemas. In the real world, you would be forced to retreat with your tail behind your legs. So, Iran is unlikely to respond in equal measure. But they could of course prove me wrong and go on an even more adventurous mission. But let’s hope better sense prevails…for everyone’s good.

The flag of General Soleimani in defense of the country's territorial integrity and the fight against terrorism and extremism in the region will be raised, and the path of resistance to US excesses will continue. The great nation of Iran will take revenge for this heinous crime.

— Hassan Rouhani (@HassanRouhani) January 3, 2020

But Iran could hit U.S right where it hurts. At its oil-chugging belly. One snap of its fingers, and the Strait of Hormuz shuts shop. Say goodbye to 30% of world’s oil supply. This threat is real. This threat is practical. And this threat is probably on Hassan Rouhani’s to-do list. Just a couple of days back, Iran, Russia and China were conducting war games near the Gulf of Oman. And it doesn’t take a genius to guess that the Strait of Hormuz was indeed part of the plan.

But on to the more important question- what was Trump thinking? An easy answer would be - he wasn’t. But there is some rationale hidden beneath this outrageous strike. The U.S says they were in possession of intel that led them to believe that Soleimani was planning something big. That’s entirely possible. Especially considering the recent U.S strikes against Kataib Hezbollah and the subsequent storming of the U.S embassy by pro-Iran militias. As evident from this strike, even the U.S was planning ‘something big’. Trump’s military advisers would have briefed him about the risk of going after Soleimani. And if he did go ahead with it, maybe he knew something that isn’t in the public domain yet.

While the U.S action was no-holds barred, its reaction after the strike has been measured. No chest-beating like during Baghdadi. This shows that the U.S realises how sensitive things are right now. Too much posturing would push Iran to do something drastic. That would be a rudderless slide, that both sides will be unable to navigate. For now, the New year could not have started on a more dangerous and febrile note. West Asia has been a conflict zone for as long as I can remember. But something about the current situation, just feels a bit more than a newspaper headline.